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DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer Plunged by 1.1%
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For the week ending January 12, 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer plunged by 1.1 percent following a 0.5 percent increase in the previous week. Production indexes were notably weak as Lumber and Truck Production showed large drop which seems to be a reactionary decline following the increase in the previous reading. On the demand side, slight decline in Chain Store Sales were offset by the increase in MBA’s purchase index and Railroad Freight Carloadings. While seasonal adjustment factor tends to be volatile during the end and beginning of the year, attention to coming data will be required considering that consumer’s reaction to the tax increase that started from January is still unclear.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed increase of 0.8 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2012 slightly slowed to 1.4 percent following 2.2 percent in 2011.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, declined 0.2 percent for consecutive two weeks. Its year-over-year growth rate was 1.6 percent.
Posted: January 24, 2013 Thursday 10:00 AM