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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth moderated in August 2022
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Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to a neutral value in August from +0.29 in July. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in August, but three categories deteriorated from July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.01 in August from –0.08 in July.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.11 in August from +0.01 in July. Forty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 39 made negative contributions. Twenty-nine indicators improved from July to August, while 55 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, eight made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.08 to the CFNAI in August, down from +0.12 in July. Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in August after increasing 0.5 percent in July. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI ticked down to +0.01 in August from +0.03 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.03 to the CFNAI in August, down from +0.12 in July. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7 percent in August from 3.5 percent in July, and nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000 in August after rising by 526,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.05 in August from +0.01 in July.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of September 22, 2022. At that time, August data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The July monthly index value was revised to +0.29 from an initial estimate of +0.27, and the June monthly index value was revised to –0.27 from last month’s estimate of –0.25. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the July monthly index value was primarily due to the latter, while the revision to the June monthly index value was primarily due to the former.
Posted: September 26, 2022 Monday 08:30 AM