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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Economic Growth Moderated in April
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.24 in April from +1.71 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in April, but three categories deteriorated from March. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.07 in April from +0.35 in March.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to +0.22 in April from +0.32 in March. Forty-seven of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 38 made negative contributions. Twenty-four indicators improved from March to April, while 60 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, ten made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.18 to the CFNAI in April, down from +0.92 in March. Industrial production moved up 0.7 percent in April after increasing 2.4 percent in March, and manufacturing production increased 0.4 percent in April after rising 3.1 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.07 in April from –0.09 in March.
The personal consumption and housing category contributed –0.06 to the CFNAI in April, down from +0.50 in March. The indicators in this category broadly deteriorated from March. The contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category to the CFNAI decreased to +0.05 in April from +0.38 in March. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 266,000 in April after rising by 770,000 in March, and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points in April after decreasing by 0.2 percentage points in the previous month.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of May 20, 2021. At that time, April data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The March monthly index value was unrevised at +1.71, and the February monthly index value was revised to –1.75 from last month’s estimate of –1.20. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the February monthly index value was primarily due to the latter.
Posted: May 24, 2021 Monday 08:30 AM