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Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Continued to Expand in April


Responses to the April Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest nonmanufacturing activity continued to expand in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and new orders were in line with their readings from last month, and the sales/revenues index declined. The full-time employment index retreated from last month’s reading but remained positive. The firms continued to report overall increases in prices of both their inputs and their own goods and services. The respondents’ expectations for future growth at their firms and in the region changed little from last month and remain positive.

Current Indicators Hold Mostly Steady
The diffusion index for current general activity at the firm level inched up 1 point to 39.2 in April (see Chart 1). Slightly more than half of the respondents reported increases in activity, compared with 11 percent that reported decreases. The new orders index was also little changed from last month’s reading and edged up to 25.4. After a sharp increase last month, the sales/revenues index fell 5 points to 37.2. Nearly half of the responding firms reported increases in sales/revenues, while 12 percent reported decreases. The regional activity index inched down 1 point to 21.0.

Employment Indicators Remain Positive
The firms continued to report overall increases in full-time employment, but the full-time employment indicator fell from its elevated reading last month. The full-time employment index fell 15 points to 18.3 in April. The share of firms reporting increases (28 percent) exceeded the share of firms reporting decreases (9 percent); nearly 61 percent of the firms reported no change to employment levels. The part-time employment index rose 6 points to 24.3, while the wages and benefits indicator decreased 6 points to 38.2. The average workweek index decreased 5 points to 24.5.

Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases
Both price indicator readings suggest overall increases in prices for inputs and for the firms’ own goods and services. The prices paid index edged down 1 point to 27.1 (see Chart 2). Although the majority of respondents (71 percent) reported stable input prices, 27 percent of the respondents reported increases, while none reported decreases. Regarding prices for firms’ own goods and services, the prices received index increased for the second consecutive month, rising 5 points to 16.4. More than 23 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received, while 7 percent reported decreases. Most of the firms (68 percent) reported no change in their own prices.

Firms Expect Growth to Continue
Both future activity indexes suggest that firms anticipate continued growth over the next six months, similar to last month. The diffusion index for future activity at the firm level decreased slightly from 45.8 in March to 44.0 in April (see Chart 1). Fifty-three percent of the responding firms expect activity to increase, while only 9 percent expect activity to decrease. Thirty-seven percent of the firms expect no change over the next six months. The future regional activity index increased slightly to 29.5.

Summary
Responses to this month’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that expansion of nonmanufacturing activity continued in the region. The indicators for firm-level general activity and new orders changed little from last month, and the sales/revenues index declined slightly. Although the full-time employment index fell, it remained positive. Respondents remain optimistic about growth over the next six months in their own firms and in the region.




Posted: April 23, 2019 Tuesday 08:30 AM




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