Research >> Economics
Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Again
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Texas factory activity increased for a second month in a row in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 3.3 to 5.8, suggesting a slight pickup in output growth.
Most other indexes of current manufacturing activity also reflected growth this month. The new orders index rebounded into positive territory after four months of negative readings, coming in at 6.2. The growth rate of orders index jumped 11 points to -0.7. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes posted their second positive reading in a row and climbed to 8.2 and 7.1, respectively.
Perceptions of broader business conditions remained pessimistic. The general business activity index held steady at -13.9, its 16th straight negative reading. The company outlook index posted a negative reading for the fifth consecutive month but rose from -11.0 to -5.9, showing signs of additional stabilization in April.
Labor market indicators reflected persistent weakness in April. The employment and hours worked indexes remained negative for the fourth straight month but rose to -3.7 and -1.0, respectively. Fourteen percent of firms noted net hiring, and 18 percent noted net layoffs in April.
Price pressures were mixed, and wages continued to rise. Abatement in downward pressure on input costs was seen in April, as the raw materials prices index bounced back into positive territory after nine months of decline, coming in at 5.5. The finished goods prices index has been negative since January 2015 and edged up to -6.6 this month. Meanwhile, the wages and benefits index stayed positive and rose from 14.7 to 16.7, suggesting a slightly accelerated rise in compensation.
Expectations regarding future business conditions were mixed in April. The index of future general business activity fell 6 points to 0.4, while the index measuring future company outlook posted its third positive reading at 8.9. Indexes for future manufacturing activity rose and remained solidly positive.
The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity. Data were collected April 12–20, and 103 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.
Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of firms reporting an increase exceeds the share reporting a decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a decrease exceeds the share reporting an increase, the index will be below zero, suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior month. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase is equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease. Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.
Posted: April 25, 2016 Monday 10:30 AM