Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer unchanged%
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For the week ending October 15, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was flat, with solid gains in steel production and electric output that were offset by weak performance in the consumer sector. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales were flat for two weeks in a row, mortgage applications volume turned down and railroad freight carloadings decreased as well. Thus far the barometer performance in October, averaging 95.3, was unchanged from September and we see no signs yet of acceleration in economic activity.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer increased by +1.5 percent for three consecutive weeks, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was flat in the latest week ending October 15th and marked the fourth consecutive week of flat reading, while its year-over-year growth rate increased by +1.5 percent.
Posted: October 27, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM