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Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth declined in February
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Led by declines in indicators related to production and personal consumption and housing, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –1.09 in February from +0.75 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, but all four categories decreased from January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.02 in February from +0.46 in January.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to +0.17 in February from +0.34 in January. Thirty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 51 made negative contributions. Thirty indicators improved from January to February, while 55 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, eight made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.85 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.37 in January. Adverse weather played a part in industrial production declining 2.2 percent in February, after rising 1.1 percent in January. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged down to +0.03 in February from +0.06 in January.
The personal consumption and housing category contributed –0.29 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.27 in January. The indicators in this category broadly deteriorated from January. The contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category to the CFNAI edged down +0.02 in February from +0.04 in January. Notably, payrolls in construction and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing declined in February.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of March 18, 2021. At that time, February data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The January monthly index value was revised to +0.75 from an initial estimate of +0.66, and the December monthly index value was revised to +0.28 from last month’s estimate of +0.41. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the January and December monthly index values were primarily due to the former.
Posted: March 22, 2021 Monday 08:30 AM