Research >> Economics

Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a modest pace


Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity expanded at a modest pace overall from April through mid-May, a slight improvement over the previous period. Almost all Districts reported some growth, and a few saw moderate gains in activity. Manufacturing reports were generally positive, but some Districts noted signs of slowing activity and a more uncertain outlook among contacts. Residential construction and real estate both showed overall growth, but both sectors saw wide variation in sentiment across Districts. Reports on consumer spending were generally positive but tempered. Tourism activity was stronger, especially in the Southeast, but vehicle sales were lower, according to reporting Districts. Loan demand was mixed but indicated growth. Agricultural conditions remained weak overall, but a few Districts reported some improvements. The outlook for the coming months was solidly positive but modest, with little variation among reporting Districts.

Employment and Wages
Employment continued to increase nationwide, with most Districts reporting modest or moderate job growth and others reporting slight growth, an assessment similar to the previous reporting period. Solid hiring demand was noted for retail, business services, technical, manufacturing, and construction jobs and by staffing agencies in general. However, stronger employment growth continued to be constrained by tight labor markets, with Districts citing shortages of both high- and low-skill workers. Competition for workers reportedly applied some wage pressures across a wide range of occupations and induced improvements in benefits to attract more workers and to improve retention of existing employees, according to several Districts. However, overall wage pressures remained relatively subdued given low unemployment rates; a majority of Districts reported modest or moderate wage growth.

Prices
Overall prices continued to increase at a modest pace in most Districts since the previous report. While several Districts noted faster growth in input prices than in final selling prices, firms generally reported input cost increases in the modest-to-moderate range. Contacts in several Districts reported higher freight prices. Reports from manufacturers on input prices were mixed, with some Districts citing an easing in steel and other metals prices, while contacts in others noted that raw materials prices remained elevated. Construction materials prices, including those for lumber, also eased in several Districts. Retailers generally reported flat to slightly increased selling prices. Despite increases for certain agricultural commodities, prices remained low relative to historical levels.

Highlights by Federal Reserve District

Boston
Economic activity expanded at a modest-to-moderate pace in most sectors, although a majority of manufacturers saw declines. Several staffing firms suggested that a shift in the balance of requests from direct hires toward longer contracts for temps indicated an increase in uncertainty among their clients. Most business contacts remained at least guardedly optimistic about the outlook.

New York
Regional economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in the latest reporting period. Despite persistently tight labor markets, wage growth was subdued, as was inflation generally. Consumer spending and tourism grew modestly. There was a notable expansion in new commercial construction and a modest firming in the office market. Housing markets also firmed somewhat. Banks reported a fairly broad-based pickup in loan demand.

Philadelphia
On balance, business activity accelerated further to a modest pace of growth during the current Beige Book period following slight growth in the prior period. Trade uncertainty has delayed business investment, and tight labor markets have constrained expansion and spurred wage hikes. Still, inflation remained modest, and the firms remained positive about the six-month outlook.

Cleveland
Economic activity grew modestly overall. Service-focused industries grew the fastest, both in terms of demand and in terms of employment. Nonauto consumer spending increased. Manufacturing declined slightly. Employment rose modestly. Wages increased moderately overall and grew faster in white-collar than blue-collar industries. Price inflation decelerated.

Richmond
On balance, the regional economy grew modestly in recent weeks. Manufacturers saw a decline in shipments and new orders, while trucking firms said that business was below normal. Meanwhile, ports saw strong import volumes, tourism remained high, and real estate sales and leasing picked up modestly. Labor markets tightened, and difficulty finding workers constrained growth for some retail and nonfinancial services firms.

Atlanta
Economic activity grew at a modest pace. The labor market continued to be described as tight. On balance, wages held steady but rose for select positions. Retail sales were largely unchanged since the previous report. The pace of home sales picked up. Manufacturers noted increases in new orders and production. Bankers noted stable activity.

Chicago
Economic activity increased slightly on balance. Employment increased modestly; consumer spending, business spending, and construction and real estate increased slightly; and manufacturing was little changed. Wages and prices rose modestly, and lending picked up slightly. Farmers continued to be challenged by poor weather and low crop prices.

St. Louis
Economic conditions were generally unchanged from the previous report. Contacts in most sectors reported slightly positive to no growth. However, contacts in banking, real estate, and agriculture noted slight to moderate declines. Overall, contacts' economic outlook for the reminder of the year remains slightly optimistic.

Minneapolis
Ninth District economic activity grew slightly, with several sectors seeing mixed or flat growth, including commercial construction and real estate. Labor demand remained healthy, but signs of softness were apparent. Residential construction and real estate remained soft, but manufacturers were upbeat about near-term expectations. A wet spring has threatened the planting season for already-struggling agricultural producers.

Kansas City
Economic activity continued to expand at a slight pace in April and early May. Home sales increased strongly, and consumer spending rose slightly, driven by moderate gains in the retail sector. In addition, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation, and professional and high-tech activity rose modestly. However, energy activity fell slightly, and agricultural credit conditions and farm income weakened.

Dallas
Economic activity expanded moderately, although there were scattered signs of a deceleration in growth in early May. Home sales rose, and loan volumes continued to increase. Hiring continued at a moderate pace, and wage pressures remained elevated. Outlooks were generally less positive than during the prior reporting period, with tariff and trade negotiations driving up uncertainty.

San Francisco
Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to expand at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions remained tight, and price inflation was unchanged on balance. Sales of retail goods increased modestly, and activity in the consumer and business services sectors increased moderately. Conditions in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors improved modestly. Activity in residential real estate markets expanded moderately, and commercial activity was steady. Lending activity increased slightly.




Posted: June 5, 2019 Wednesday 02:00 PM




Tags - Research
ADP EMPLOYMENT
BEIGE BOOK
BUSINESS BAROMETER
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
CASE-SHILLER
CEO CONFIDENCE
CHALLENGER LAYOFFS
CHICAGO FED MIDWEST MFG
CHICAGO FED NATL ACTIVITY
CHICAGO PMI
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
CONSUMER CREDIT
CPI
CURRENT ACCOUNT
DURABLE GOODS
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS INDEX
EXISTING HOME SALES
FACTORY ORDERS
FOMC STMT
FOMC
GDP
HELP WANTED HWOL
HOUSING STARTS
ICSC CHAIN STORE
IMPORT PRICE INDEX
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
ISM MFG
ISM NON-MFG
JOB OPENINGS
JOBLESS CLAIMS
KANSAS CITY FED MFG
LEADING INDEX
MASS LAYOFFS
MICH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
MORTGAGE APPS
NAHB INDEX
NAPM-NY
NBER
NEW HOME SALES
NEW YORK FED MFG
NFIB OPTIMISM INDEX
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
PAYCHEX-IHS SMALL JOBS
PENDING HOME SALES
PERSONAL INCOME
PHILA FED FORECASTERS
PHILA FED MFG
PHILA FED NON-MFG
PPI
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
REAL HOURLY EARNINGS
RETAIL SALES
RICHMOND FED MFG
TEXAS FED MFG
TREASURY INTL CAPITAL
WHOLESALE INVENTORIES
Archives
Apr 2024
Mar 2024
Feb 2024
Jan 2024
Dec 2023
Nov 2023
Oct 2023
Sep 2023
Aug 2023
Jul 2023
Jun 2023
May 2023
Apr 2023
Mar 2023
Feb 2023
Jan 2023
Dec 2022
Nov 2022
Oct 2022
Sep 2022
Aug 2022
Jul 2022
Jun 2022
May 2022
Apr 2022
Mar 2022
Feb 2022
Jan 2022
Dec 2021
Nov 2021
Oct 2021
Sep 2021
Aug 2021
Jul 2021
Jun 2021
May 2021
Apr 2021
Mar 2021
Feb 2021
Jan 2021
Dec 2020
Nov 2020
Oct 2020
Sep 2020
Aug 2020
Jul 2020
Jun 2020
May 2020
Apr 2020
Mar 2020
Feb 2020
Jan 2020
Dec 2019
Nov 2019
Oct 2019
Sep 2019
Aug 2019
Jul 2019
Jun 2019
May 2019
Apr 2019
Mar 2019
Feb 2019
Jan 2019
Dec 2018
Nov 2018
Oct 2018
Sep 2018
Aug 2018
Jul 2018
Jun 2018
May 2018
Apr 2018
Mar 2018
Feb 2018
Jan 2018
Dec 2017
Nov 2017
Oct 2017
Sep 2017
Aug 2017
Jul 2017
Jun 2017
May 2017
Apr 2017
Mar 2017
Feb 2017
Jan 2017
Dec 2016
Nov 2016
Oct 2016
Sep 2016
Aug 2016
Jul 2016
Jun 2016
May 2016
Apr 2016
Mar 2016
Feb 2016
Jan 2016
Dec 2015
Nov 2015
Oct 2015
Sep 2015
Aug 2015
Jul 2015
Jun 2015
May 2015
Apr 2015
Mar 2015
Feb 2015
Jan 2015
Dec 2014
Nov 2014
Oct 2014
Sep 2014
Aug 2014
Jul 2014
Jun 2014
May 2014
Apr 2014
Mar 2014
Feb 2014
Jan 2014
Dec 2013
Nov 2013
Oct 2013
Sep 2013
Aug 2013
Jul 2013
Jun 2013
May 2013
Apr 2013
Mar 2013
Feb 2013
Jan 2013
Dec 2012
Nov 2012
Oct 2012
Sep 2012
Aug 2012
Jul 2012
Jun 2012
May 2012
Apr 2012
Mar 2012
Feb 2012
Jan 2012
Dec 2011
Nov 2011
Oct 2011
Sep 2011
Aug 2011
Jul 2011
Jun 2011
May 2011
Apr 2011
Mar 2011
Feb 2011
Jan 2011
Dec 2010
Nov 2010
Oct 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
Jul 2010
Jun 2010
May 2010
Apr 2010
Mar 2010
Feb 2010
Jan 2010
Dec 2009
Nov 2009
Oct 2009
Sep 2009
Aug 2009
Jul 2009
Jun 2009
May 2009
Apr 2009
Mar 2009
Feb 2009
Jan 2009
Dec 2008
Nov 2008
Oct 2008
Sep 2008
Aug 2008






National Association for Business Economics
NABE

Founded in 1920, the National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works.

CFA Institute

Quick Links
Barron's Online
Bloomberg
CNBC
CNBC TV Live
CNet Investor
Financial Times (UK)
Forbes
Kudlow Podcast
MSNBC TV Live
NBC News
NY Times
The Economist
TheStreet.com
Wall St Journal
Dismal Scientist
Dr. Ed Yardeni
FRED Graph
Lawrence Kudlow
GDPNow
NABE
ABC News
CNNfn
Institutional Investor
MarketWatch
Cash Prices - WSJ.com
Dollar Index
Dr. Jeremy Siegel
Market Map
NY RBOB Gas
PriceStats
Rig Count
Shadow Fed - SOMC
The Billion Prices Project
BankStocks.com
Dow Jones Indices
Morningstar
SP Indices
Mt Washington Observatory
Weather.com
Yahoo!!