For the week ending December 7 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer decreased by 0.3 percent for the second week in a row to 97.5. This week’s barometer was dragged by production indexes, where electric output dropped significantly by 14.1 percent following a sharp rise of 11.7 percent in the prior week. Truck production also decreased by 5.2 percent, the first decline in the past eight weeks. Consumption indexes resulted in a slight positive contribution in the barometer; railroad freight carloadings rebounded by 3.3 percent. However, chain store sales, which declined for two consecutive weeks, cancelled out some of the increases.

On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed a gain of 1.0 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2012 slightly slowed to 1.4 percent following 2.2 percent in 2011.

The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, decreased by 0.1 percent, the first drop since October 5. Its year-over-year growth rate was 0.4 percent.