Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer decreased 0.1%
|
For the week ending October 8, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined slightly by -0.1 percent after a flat reading in the prior week. Fifty percent of the barometer’s components lost ground in the latest week compared to forty percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales dipped by -0.1 percent, giving back a small gain in the prior week. Unseasonably warm weather might have an adverse effect on sales in fall merchandise. On the production side, auto and truck production was extending weeks of its gain, offsetting a huge drop in electric output.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer increased by +1.5 percent for the second week, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was flat in thelatest week ending October 8th and marked the sixth consecutive week of flat reading, while its year-over-year growth rate remained at +1.4 percent for the second week in a row.
Posted: October 20, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM