Research >> Economics
Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened further
|
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was −2.47 in November, down from −1.27 in October. All four broad categories of indicators made negative ontributions to the index in November.
On December 1, 2008, the National Bureau of Economic Research determined that the U.S. economy had reached a business cycle peak in December 2007. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, first indicated an increasing likelihood that a recession had begun in December 2007, as initially reported in the March 24, 2008, CFNAI release.
The CFNAI-MA3 decreased slightly to –2.49 in November from –2.40 in the previous month. This negative value suggests that growth in national economic activity was well below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, November’s three-month moving average indicates little inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The decrease in the monthly index was driven primarily by employment-related indicators, which contributed –1.03 to the index in November after contributing –0.82 in October. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 533,000 in November after decreasing 320,000 in October; and private payrolls declined by 540,000 in November after decreasing 362,000 in October.
Posted: December 22, 2008 Monday 08:31 AM