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Chicago Fed National Activity points to a pickup in economic growth in June
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The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.01 in June from –0.08 in May. Forty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 45 made negative contributions. Fifty-six indicators improved from May to June, while 28 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 21 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI increased to +0.09 in June from –0.16 in May. Total industrial production increased 0.4 percent in June after moving up 0.1 percent in May, and the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to 57.8 in June from 54.9 in the previous month. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.02 to the CFNAI in June, up slightly from a neutral contribution in May.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.06 to the CFNAI in June, up from –0.05 in May. Civilian nonagricultural employment increased by 431,000 in June after decreasing by 64,000 in the previous month; however, the civilian unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent in June from 4.3 percent in May.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged up to –0.04 in June from –0.09 in May.
Housing starts increased to 1,215,000 annualized units in June from 1,122,000 in May, and housing permits increased to 1,254,000 annualized units in June from 1,168,000 in the previous month.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of July 20, 2017. At that time, June data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The May monthly index value was revised to –0.30 from an initial estimate of –0.26, and the April monthly index value was revised to +0.36 from last month’s estimate of +0.57. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the May and April monthly index values were primarily due to the latter.
Posted: July 27, 2017 Thursday 08:30 AM