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Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Declined Again in September
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The September 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for a second consecutive month for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index remained well below zero at -14.7. As in August, declines were reported for both orders and shipments, with the new orders index coming in at -12.9 and the shipments index registering -8.0. The inventories index slipped a point to -18.5, indicating a continuing drop in inventory levels. Price indexes pointed to a small increase in input prices and a small decline in selling prices. Labor market indicators suggested that both employment levels and hours worked contracted. Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally lower than last month, suggesting that optimism about future conditions waned.
Business Conditions Weaken
Business activity declined for a second consecutive month for New York manufacturers, according to the September 2015 survey. After tumbling nineteen points last month to its lowest level since 2009, the general business conditions index was little changed at -14.7. Twenty percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 35 percent reported that conditions had worsened. Though a few points higher than last month, the new orders index remained negative at -12.9, indicating that orders continued to slide, and the shipments index, at -8.0, pointed to an ongoing decline in shipments. The unfilled orders index fell four points to -8.3. The delivery time index edged down to -6.2, indicating slightly shorter delivery times, and the inventories index fell one point to -18.6, suggesting that inventory levels were significantly lower than last month.
Labor Market Conditions Deteriorate
Price changes were quite modest. The prices paid index slipped to 4.1, its lowest level since the Great Recession. The prices received index dipped below zero, falling six points to -5.2 in a sign that selling prices declined. Labor market conditions worsened, with declines in employment levels and hours worked. The index for number of employees fell below zero for the first time in well over two years, slipping eight points to -6.2, and the average workweek index dropped to -10.3.
Optimism Wanes
Indexes for the six-month outlook displayed less optimism about future conditions than in August. The index for future business conditions fell ten points to 23.2. Indexes for expected new orders and shipments dropped to similar levels, and the indexes for both future prices paid and future prices received declined. The index for expected number of employees edged up to 7.2, while the index for future average workweek turned negative. The index for expected capital expenditures fell six points to 11.3, and the technology spending index dropped to 2.1, indicating that tech spending plans were essentially flat.
Posted: September 15, 2015 Tuesday 08:30 AM