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DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.3%
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For the week ending May 31 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.3 percent after four consecutive weeks’ drop. This week’s barometer is mainly driven by strong performances in consumption indexes. Chain store sales bounced back by 2.9 percent after a 1.2 percent drop in the previous week, more than offsetting declines in MBA’s purchase index and railroad freight carloadings. As to the production side, auto production remained strong with an 8.2 percent gain in this week, although it was entirely offset by a sharp decline in truck production.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed a gain of 0.7 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, remained at 97.9 for three weeks in a row. Its year-over-year growth rate was 0.6 percent.
Posted: June 12, 2014 Thursday 10:00 AM