Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased 0.5%
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After declining consecutively for two weeks, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was up +0.5 percent for the week ending June 25, 2011, lifted solely by a consumption component. In the latest week, inflation adjusted chain store sales unexpectedly rose sharply, reversing its course of the prior two weeks. On the production side, truck production advanced nicely, but the gain was offset by a large decline in auto production.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer increased by +1.6 percent in the week ending June 25, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was flat in the latest week ending June 25th following four consecutive weeks of flat reading, while its year-over-year growth rate slowed slightly to +1.4 percent.
Posted: July 7, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM