Research >> Economics
Chicago PMI Improved
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The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER IMPROVED as the rate of decline slowed, with the highest reading since September 2008.
BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
PRICES PAID and ORDER BACKLOG indexes declined;
NEW ORDERS index jumped, while EMPLOYMENT rate of decline slowed;
INVENTORIES index was the lowest since mid-1949.
BUYING POLICY:
CAPITAL EQUIPMENT lead-times were lowest since November 2004.
The July CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER™ gained three+ points, for the highest reading since September 2008. If this were an average recession, it would end four months after the low point in the BAROMETER. Based on the current reading, August 2009 would mark the end of the current recession. Since this is not working out to be an average recession, a more conservative rule would draw an analogy to the 1981-82 recession. Using such a rule, the end of this recession would be projected to be nine months after the lowest value of the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER. With March 2009 as our best current estimate of that minimum, the recession can be projected to end in December 2009. But, the end of the recession is not necessarily the beginning of robust growth.
Posted: July 31, 2009 Friday 10:00 AM