Research >> Economics
ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 58.7% in January 2021
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Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in January, with the overall economy notching an eighth consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:
“The January Manufacturing PMI® registered 58.7 percent, down 1.8 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 60.5 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the eighth month in a row after contraction in March, April, and May. The New Orders Index registered 61.1 percent, down 6.4 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 67.5 percent. The Production Index registered 60.7 percent, a decrease of 4 percentage points compared to the seasonally adjusted December reading of 64.7 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 59.7 percent, 0.6 percentage point above the December reading of 59.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.6 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 51.7 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 68.2 percent, up 0.5 percentage point from the December figure of 67.7 percent. The Inventories Index registered 50.8 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 51 percent. The Prices Index registered 82.1 percent, up 4.5 percentage points compared to the December reading of 77.6 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 54.9 percent, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to the December reading of 57.5 percent. The Imports Index registered 56.8 percent, a 2.2-percentage point increase from the December reading of 54.6 percent.”
Fiore continues, “The manufacturing economy continued its recovery in January. Survey committee members reported that their companies and suppliers continue to operate in reconfigured factories, but absenteeism, short-term shutdowns to sanitize facilities and difficulties in returning and hiring workers are continuing to cause strains that limit manufacturing growth potential. However, panel sentiment remains optimistic (three positive comments for every cautious comment), similar to December levels. Demand expanded, with the (1) New Orders Index growing at a strong level, supported by the New Export Orders Index expanding, (2) Customers’ Inventories Index remaining in ‘too low’ territory and at a level considered a positive for future production, and the (3) Backlog of Orders Index remaining at high levels. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) contributed negatively (a combined 3.1-percentage point decrease) to the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Five of the top six industries reported moderate to strong expansion. The Employment Index expanded for a second straight month, but panelists continue to note difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies and supplier facilities. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — continued to indicate input-driven constraints to production expansion, at higher rates compared to December, as indicated by minimal gains in inventory levels and declining supplier performance. Imports expanded in the period, despite port backlogs, but not at levels desired by panelists. Supplier delivery struggles continued, contributing moderately to the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. (The Supplier Deliveries and Inventories indexes directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®; the Imports Index does not.) The Prices Index surged dramatically in January, hitting a level last reached in April 2011, indicating continued supplier pricing power.
“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, five — Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products — registered moderate to strong growth in January. Petroleum & Coal Products contracted.
“Manufacturing performed well for the eighth straight month, with demand, consumption and inputs registering strong growth compared to December. Labor market difficulties at panelists’ companies and their suppliers will continue to restrict the manufacturing economy expansion until the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis abates,” says Fiore.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 16 reported growth in January, in the following order: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Textile Mills; and Computer & Electronic Products. The two industries reporting contraction in January are: Printing & Related Support Activities; and Petroleum & Coal Products.
Posted: February 1, 2021 Monday 10:00 AM