Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.5%
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For the week ending August 18, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by -0.5 percent following the slight decreases for the last two weeks. Chain Store Sales continued to fall for the fourth consecutive week and decreased sharply this week despite the back-to-school sales season. Electric Output also dropped considerably this week as well as other industries such as Steel Production and Lumber Production. In contrast, Auto Production has remained on the uptrend since last month and Truck Production picked up this week after decreasing for two weeks in a row.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer increased by +1.6 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The barometer increased by +2.2 percent in 2011 at a somewhat slower pace compared to 2010.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, decreased by -0.1 percent this week, while its year-over-year growth rate increased by +1.7 percent. The smoothed barometer has been on a downward trend for five consecutive weeks.
Posted: August 30, 2012 Thursday 10:00 AM