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Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased in November
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to –0.37 in November from –0.11 in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from October, and only the employment, unemployment, and hours category was positive in November.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, remained level, at –0.24, from October to November. November’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. Likewise, the economic slack reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
Production-related indicators made a contribution of –0.23 to the index in November—a sharp decrease from +0.16 in October and its lowest value since April 2011. Industrial production edged down 0.2 percent in November after increasing 0.7 percent in the previous month. Manufacturing production decreased 0.4 percent in November after increasing 0.5 percent in October. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution to the index in November, down slightly from +0.01 in October.
Posted: December 22, 2011 Thursday 08:30 AM