Research >> Economics
Chicago Fed National Activity increased slightly in April
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The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased slightly to –0.23 in April from –0.27 in March. April’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, was unchanged at –0.12 in April. Thirty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 47 made negative contributions. Forty-six indicators improved from March to April, while 37 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 19 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI was unchanged at –0.16 in April. Industrial production decreased 0.3 percent in April for the second straight month. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in April, down slightly from +0.01 in March.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.08 to the CFNAI in April, up from –0.08 in March. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 in April, following a gain of 85,000 in the previous month; and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.4 percent in April from 5.5 percent in March.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI increased to –0.06 in April from –0.12 in March. Housing starts moved up to 1,135,000 annualized units in April from 944,000 in March. In addition, housing permits increased to 1,143,000 annualized units in April from 1,038,000 in the previous month.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of May 19, 2015. At that time, April data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The March monthly index was revised to –0.36 from an initial estimate of –0.42. Revisions to the monthly index can be
attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the March monthly index was due primarily to the former.
Posted: May 21, 2015 Thursday 08:30 AM