Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer unchanged%
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For the week ending October 1, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was flat after an increase of +0.1 percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales increased by +0.1 percent after they decreased for two continuous weeks, the gain, however, was not strong enough to lift the overall barometer. Both mortgage applications and box office receipts fell, while railroad freight carloadings rebounded. On the production side, auto production and electric output increased, offsetting the decline in lumber and in steel production.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer increased by +1.5 percent in the week ending October 1, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, edged up +0.1 percent in the latest week ending October 1st, after a flat reading in the past four weeks, while its year-over-year growth rate accelerated to +1.5 percent after increasing +1.3 percent in five continuous weeks.
Posted: October 13, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM