Research >> Economics
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests steady economic growth in June 2022
|
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at –0.19 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in June, and two categories deteriorated from May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.04 in June from +0.09 in May.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.04 in June from +0.11 in May. Forty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 44 made negative contributions. Forty-one indicators improved from May to June, while 42 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 17 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.20 to the CFNAI in June, down from –0.17 in May. Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in June after being unchanged in May. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged up to +0.03 in June from –0.01 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.05 to the CFNAI in June, down slightly from +0.06 in May. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent in June, but nonfarm payrolls moved up by 372,000 in June after increasing by 384,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked up to –0.06 in June from –0.08 in May.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of July 21, 2022. At that time, June data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The May monthly index value was revised to –0.19 from an initial estimate of +0.01, and the April monthly index value was revised to +0.26 from last month’s estimate of +0.40. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the May and April monthly index values were primarily due to the former.
Posted: July 25, 2022 Monday 08:30 AM