Research >> Economics
Forecasters Predict Further Slowdown in Economic Recovery
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The pace of recovery in output and employment in the U.S. economy looks a little slower now than it did three months ago, according to 43 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel expects real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 2.8 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters predict slower real GDP growth in 2010, 2011, and 2012. However, some of that downward revision will be compensated with a stronger real GDP growth in 2013. The forecasters see real GDP growing 2.7 percent in 2010, down from their prediction of 2.9 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.5 percent in 2011, 2.9 percent in 2012, and 3.0 percent in 2013.
The forecasters also predict weaker recovery in the labor market. Unemployment is projected to be an annual average of 9.7 percent in 2010, before falling to 9.3 percent in 2011, 8.7 percent in 2012, and 7.9 percent in 2013. These estimates are higher than the projections in the last survey. On the employment front, the forecasters have revised downward the growth in jobs over the next four quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 86,600 jobs per month this quarter and 104,200 jobs per month next quarter. The forecasters’ projections for the annual average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a monthly rate of 56,100 in 2010. Job gains in 2011 are seen averaging 105,500 per month.
Posted: November 15, 2010 Monday 10:00 AM