Research >> Economics
U.S. leading economic index increased 0.7%
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The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased for the third consecutive month in June. Most of the components contributed positively to the index this month except real money supply* and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The six-month change in the index has risen to 2.0 percent (a 4.1 percent annual rate) in the period through June, up substantially from - 3.1 percent (a –6.2 percent annual rate) for the previous six months, and the strengths among the leading indicators have remained balanced with the weaknesses in recent months.
The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. continued to decrease in June, amid further contractions in employment and industrial production. Between December 2008 and June 2009, the index fell 3.0 percent (a –5.9 percent annual rate), slightly faster than the decline of 2.8 percent (a –5.6 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. In June, the lagging economic index for the U.S. fell more than the coincident economic index, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio increased, as a result. Meanwhile, real GDP fell at a 5.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2009, following a contraction of 6.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. has rien for three consecutive months now, after having fallen steadily since reaching a peak in July 2007. With these large and widespread gains, its six month growth has picked up to the highest rate since the first quarter of 2006. Meanwhile, The Conference Board CEI for the U.S., measuring current economic activity, remains on a downtrend, but the pace of its decline has moderated somewhat in recent months. All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes suggest that the recession will continue to ease and that the economy may begin to recover in the near term.
Posted: July 20, 2009 Monday 10:00 AM