Research >> Economics
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests steady economic growth in September 2022
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at +0.10 in September. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in September, but two categories deteriorated from August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.17 in September from +0.04 in August.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.35 in September from +0.16 in August. Forty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 37 made negative contributions. Forty-four indicators improved from August to September, while 41 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, eight made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.07 to the CFNAI in September, up from –0.02 in August. Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in September after decreasing 0.1 percent in August. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI decreased to –0.01 in September from +0.15 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.06 to the CFNAI in September, up from –0.05 in August. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5 percent in September from 3.7 percent in August. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged down to –0.01 in September from +0.02 in August.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of October 20, 2022. At that time, September data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The August monthly index value was revised to +0.10 from an initial estimate of a neutral value, and the July monthly index value was unrevised. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the August monthly index value was primarily due to the former.
Posted: October 24, 2022 Monday 08:30 AM