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Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Eased Slightly


Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity eased slightly in November, but expectations for future months remained relatively solid. Price indexes were mixed, with deceleration in monthly prices but continued expectations for moderate price increases in the months ahead.

The month-over-month composite index was 4 in November, down from 8 in October and 6 in September. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Manufacturing activity slowed in nondurable goods factories, while growth increased in durable goods producing plants, particularly for aerospace and fabricated metal products. Most other month-over-month indexes also eased somewhat in November. The production and shipments indexes decreased to 0, and the new orders and order backlog indexes were negative. The employment index dropped to its lowest level of the year but remained slightly positive, and the new orders for exports index moderated slightly. Raw materials inventories continued to grow moderately, while the finished goods inventory index moved sharply higher.

Most year-over-year factory indexes slowed modestly in November. The composite year-over-year index remained largely unchanged at 22. The production, shipments, and new orders indexes all edged down, and the employment index decreased slightly from 27 to 22. In contrast, the order backlog index moved higher, and the capital expenditures index posted its highest level since early 2007. Both inventory indexes also increased.

Future factory indexes were mostly stable, and still at relatively solid levels. The future composite index eased from 13 to 12, and the future production, shipments, and new orders indexes also moved slightly lower. The future employment index moderated somewhat, and the future new orders for exports index fell from 9 to 4. In contrast, the future order backlog index jumped from 0 to 10, and the future capital expenditures index improved further. The future raw materials inventory index increased from -8 to 0, and the future finished goods inventory index also rose.

Price indexes were somewhat mixed this month, with some moderation in monthly price growth but modest price increases expected in coming months. The month-over-month raw materials price index dropped from 24 to 12, and the finished goods price index also eased slightly. The year-over-year finished goods price index moved lower, while the raw materials price index decreased from 82 to 70. The future raw materials price index edged up somewhat, and the future finished goods price index inched higher from 25 to 26 , indicating a sizeable number of firms plan to pass recent cost increases through to customers.




Posted: November 23, 2011 Wednesday 11:00 AM




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