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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests to steady economic growth in March 2023
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at –0.19 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in March, and two categories deteriorated from February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.01 in March from –0.09 in February.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged up to +0.14 in March from +0.10 in February. Forty-three of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 42 made negative contributions. Forty-five indicators improved from February to March, while 40 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 13 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.08 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.04 in February. Manufacturing production decreased 0.5 percent in March after increasing 0.6 percent in February. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.02 in March from –0.09 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.01 to the CFNAI in March, up from –0.09 in February. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5 percent in March from 3.6 percent in February. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved down to –0.10 in March from –0.05 in February.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of April 20, 2023. At that time, March data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The February monthly index value was unrevised at –0.19, and the January monthly index value was revised to +0.41 from last month’s estimate of +0.23. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the January monthly index value was primarily due to the former.
Posted: April 24, 2023 Monday 08:30 AM