Research >> Economics
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Economic Growth Declined in February 2023
|
Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.19 in February from +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, and three categories deteriorated from January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.13 in February from –0.27 in January.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.02 in February from –0.07 in January. Thirty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 47 made negative contributions. Thirty-three indicators improved from January to February, while 52 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.08 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.15 in January. Manufacturing production ticked up 0.1 percent in February after rising 1.3 percent in January. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.02 in February from –0.12 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed –0.02 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.10 in January. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6 percent in February from 3.4 percent in January. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI decreased to –0.08 in February from +0.10 in January.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of March 21, 2023. At that time, February data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The January monthly index value was unrevised at +0.23, and the December monthly index value was revised to –0.44 from last month’s estimate of –0.46. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the December monthly index value was primarily due to the latter.
Posted: March 23, 2023 Thursday 08:30 AM