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DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined slightly by 0.2%
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For the week ending November 2nd 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined slightly by 0.2 percent to 97.2, following a flat reading in the prior week. A weakening trend in consumption still continues; chain store sales dropped by 0.6 percent after a decrease of 0.4 percent in the previous week and MBA’s purchase index also declined significantly. Meanwhile, railroad freight carloadings picked up by 1.4 percent this week. Production showed a sharp dip in auto production, a 0.8 percent decline. Otherwise there were only minor changes in other production indexes.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed a gain of 0.5 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2012 slightly slowed to 1.4 percent following 2.2 percent in 2011.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, remained the same level at 97.3 for the second consecutive week. Its year-over-year growth rate was 0.6 percent.
Posted: November 14, 2013 Thursday 10:00 AM