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Chicago Fed National Activity Index continued to expand in May
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged lower to +0.21 in May from +0.25 in April. Production indicators continued to make strong contributions to the index in May, while weaker contributions from employment- and housing-related indicators accounted for the slight decrease in the index from April.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to its highest level since March 2006, increasing to +0.28 in May from +0.05 in April. May’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend. Moving above +0.20, the index’s three-month moving average in May also reached a level historically associated with a mature economic recovery following a recession. With regard to inflation, the CFNAI-MA3 in May indicates limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
Production-related indicators made a contribution of +0.51 to the index in May, compared with +0.39 in April. Industrial production rose 1.2 percent in May after increasing 0.7 percent in April, and manufacturing production increased 0.9 percent for the second straight month.
Posted: June 28, 2010 Monday 08:30 AM