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BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained flat%
For the week ending October 17 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained flat at 97.6 as the gains in some indexes were completely offset by losses in others. MBA’s purchase index, for instance, surged 16.4 percent after plummeting by 34.1 percent in the previous week. But that gain was offset by losses in chain store sales and railroad freight car loadings. As to the production side, gains in indexes such as auto, truck and lumber production were also canceled out by a drop of 1.7 percent in steel production.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed a loss of 0.5 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, dropped by 0.2 percent to 97.7. Its year-over-year growth rate was -0.4 percent.
Posted: October 29, 2015 Thursday 10:00 AM