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Forecasters See Slightly Slower Growth as the Unemployment Outlook Holds Steady
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The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy over the next four years looks slightly lower from that of three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel expects real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.7 percent this quarter and 2.8 percent next quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters see real GDP growing 2.3 percent in 2015, down from the previous estimate of 2.4 percent. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.8 percent in 2016, 2.6 percent in 2017, and 2.4 percent in 2018. The forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are slightly slower than the previous estimates.
The outlook for the labor market remains nearly unchanged. The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 5.3 percent in 2015, before falling to 5.0 percent in 2016, 4.8 percent in 2017, and 4.7 percent in 2018. These projections are nearly the same as those of the previous survey.
On the jobs front, the forecasters have revised upward their estimates for job gains in 2015 and 2016. The forecasters’ projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 244,200 in 2015, up slightly from the previous estimate of 243,900, and 200,500 in 2016, up from the previous estimate of 180,100. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Posted: August 14, 2015 Friday 10:00 AM