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Chicago Fed National Activity Points to a moderation in economic growth in September
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.17 in September from +0.27 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from August, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.21 in September from +0.27 in August.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, was unchanged at +0.18 in September. Forty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 39 made negative contributions. Thirty-six indicators improved from August to September, while 49 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 11 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI moved down to +0.11 in September from +0.16 in August. Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in September after rising 0.4 percent in August. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.05 to the CFNAI in September, down from +0.10 in August. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing New Orders Index decreased to 61.8 in September from 65.1 in August.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.07 to the CFNAI in September, up slightly from +0.06 in August. The civilian unemployment rate decreased to 3.7 percent in September from 3.9 percent in August; however, nonfarm payrolls increased by 134,000 in September after rising by 270,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged up to –0.05 in September from –0.06 in August. On balance, consumption indicators improved slightly from August, pushing up the category’s overall contribution in September.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of October 18, 2018. At that time, September data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The August monthly index value was revised to +0.27 from an initial estimate of +0.18, and the July monthly index value was unchanged at +0.18 from last month’s estimate. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the August monthly index value was primarily due to the former.
Posted: October 22, 2018 Monday 08:30 AM