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Chicago Fed National Activity somewhat below historical trend in March
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The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.27 in March from –0.12 in February. March’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.09 in March from –0.02 in February. Thirty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 47 made negative contributions. Thirty-seven indicators improved from February to March, while 48 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators made a contribution of –0.27 to the CFNAI in March, down from –0.08 in February. Industrial production declined 0.6 percent in March after moving up 0.1 percent in February. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI was unchanged at +0.01 in March.
Employment-related indicators contributed –0.03 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.11 in February. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 126,000 in March, following a gain of 264,000 in the previous month. However, the unemployment rate was steady at 5.5 percent in March.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI increased to –0.13 in March from –0.22 in February. Housing starts moved up to 926,000 annualized units in March from 908,000 in February. However, housing permits decreased to 1,039,000 annualized units in March from 1,102,000 in the previous month.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of April 16, 2015. At that time, March data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The February monthly index was revised to –0.18 from an initial estimate of –0.11. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the February monthly index was due primarily to the former.
Posted: April 20, 2015 Monday 08:30 AM