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Forecasters Revise Downward Their Estimates for Growth
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The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 48 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 1.6 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 2.5 percent. Over the next three quarters, they expect GDP growth to average 2.1 percent, down from the previous average of 2.6 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters also predict slower real output growth over the next four years. The forecasters see real GDP growing 2.2 percent in 2012, down from their prediction of 2.3 percent in the survey of three months ago. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.1 percent in 2013, 2.7 percent in 2014, and 3.1 percent in 2015, each somewhat lower than their respective predictions in the last survey.
Projections for weaker conditions in the labor market accompany the outlook for real output. Unemployment is projected to be an annual average of 8.2 percent in 2012, before falling to 7.9 percent in 2013, 7.3 percent in 2014, and 7.0 percent in 2015. The estimates for unemployment are slightly higher than the projections in the last survey.
On the employment front, the forecasters have revised downward their estimates of the growth in jobs over the next four quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 125,000 jobs per month this quarter and 135,300 jobs per month next quarter. The forecasters’ projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 154,600 in 2012 and 143,200 in 2013, as the table below shows.
Posted: August 10, 2012 Friday 10:00 AM