Research >> Economics
Forecasters See Stronger Recovery
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The outlook for the U.S. economy over the next few quarters looks stronger now than it did just three months ago, according to 44 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.3 percent over each of the next two quarters, up from the previous estimate of 2.7 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect more robust real GDP growth in 2010 and 2011, but slower real GDP growth in 2012 and 2013.The forecasters see real GDP growing 3.3 percent in 2010, up from their prediction of 3.0 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 3.1 percent in 2011, 3.2 percent in 2012, and 2.9 percent in 2013.
Stronger conditions in the labor market accompany the outlook for growth. Unemployment is now projected to be an annual average of 9.6 percent in 2010, before falling to 8.9 percent in 2011, 8.0 percent in 2012, and 7.1 percent in 2013. On the jobs front, the forecasters have revised upward the growth in jobs over the next four quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 207,300 jobs per month this quarter and 120,500 jobs per month next quarter. Both estimates mark strong upward revisions from the previous survey. Over the first half of 2011, jobs will grow at an average rate of 215,500 per month. The forecasters' projections for the annual average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a lowered monthly rate of 37,500 in 2010. Job gains in 2011 are seen averaging 184,000 per month, as the table below shows. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Posted: May 14, 2010 Friday 10:00 AM