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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests a Pickup in Economic Growth in October
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Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.76 in October from –0.18 in September. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in October, and all four categories improved from September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to +0.21 in October from +0.22 in September.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged up to +0.17 in October from +0.14 in September. Sixty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in October, while 24 made negative contributions. Fifty-eight indicators improved from September to October, while 26 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, ten made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.44 to the CFNAI in October, up from –0.35 in September. Industrial production rose 1.6 percent in October after falling 1.3 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.05 in October from +0.01 in September.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.24 to the CFNAI in October, up from +0.16 in September. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 531,000 in October after increasing by 312,000 in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked up to +0.03 in October from +0.01 in September.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of November 18, 2021. At that time, October data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The September monthly index value was revised to –0.18 from an initial estimate of –0.13, and the August monthly index value was unrevised at +0.05. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the September monthly index value was primarily due to the latter.
Posted: November 22, 2021 Monday 08:30 AM