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DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer moved down 0.5%
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For the week ending May 11, 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer moved down 0.5 percent for the second consecutive week, the biggest drop since February 9. Both consumption and production showed negative contributions to this week’s barometer. In consumption indexes, Chain Store Sales dropped by 2.0 percent following a 1.1 percent decline in the prior week. MBA’s Purchase Index also decreased for the first time in two months. As to production indexes, relatively large declines were seen in Lumber Production, which offset the increase of last week and Electric Output which decreased for three consecutive weeks.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed an increase of 0.9 percent for the fifth consecutive week, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2012 slightly slowed to 1.4 percent following 2.2 percent in 2011.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, decreased by 0.1 percent. Its year-over-year growth rate was 0.8 percent.
Posted: May 23, 2013 Thursday 10:00 AM