Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer decreased 0.1%
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For the week ending December 3, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was down -0.1 percent, after increasing +0.3 percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales declined after the explosion of post-Thanksgiving sales, dragging the business barometer index down by -0.4 percentage points. Increased mortgage activity and railroad freight carloadings, however, largely offset the decline in the consumption sector. On the production side, auto and truck production also paid back the surge in the prior week.
However,on a year-over-year basis, the growth of the barometer accelerated from the tepid growth in the prior week, increasing by +1.7 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was flat in the week ending December 3rd, and was revised slightly downward to 0.0 percent for the prior week (originally reported as +0.1 percent), while its year-over-year growth rate slowed to +1.2 percent.
Posted: December 15, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM