Research >> Economics
Chicago PMI rebounding
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The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER rate of decline slowed while rebounding from May’s weakness.
BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
PRICES PAID index added 6 1/2 points while declining for the 9th month;
EMPLOYMENT continued to shrink;
NEW ORDERS and ORDER BACKLOG indexes improved, but still declined;
BUYING POLICY:
PRODUCTION MATERIEL lead-times declined to start-of-recession low.
The June CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER™ gained five points, bouncing back to its April level. If this were an average recession, it would end four months after the low point in the BAROMETER. Based on the current reading, August 2009 would mark the end of the current recession. Since this is not working out to be an average recession, a more conservative rule would draw an analogy to the 1981-82 recession. Using such a rule, the end of this recession would be projected to be nine months after the lowest value of the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER. With March 2009 as our best current estimate of that minimum, the recession can be projected to end in December 2009.
Posted: June 30, 2009 Tuesday 10:00 AM