Research >> Economics
BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.4%
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For the week ending March 19 2016, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.4 percent to 97.4. This week’s fall was chiefly driven by consumption indexes, in which chain store sales declined by 2.1 percent, following a rebound of 1.3 percent in the previous week. MBA’s purchase index and railroad freight car loadings also recorded losses. As to the production side, most indexes reported gains, although not near enough to offset the drag from the consumption side. For example, auto and truck production rose by 3.9 and 1.9 percent, respectively.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer declined by 0.9 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, remained flat at 97.6. Its year-over-year growth rate was -0.8 percent.
Posted: March 31, 2016 Thursday 10:00 AM