Research >> Economics
Philadelphia Fed January Outlook continued to be depressed
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Conditions in the region's manufacturing sector continued to be depressed this month, according to firms polled for the January Business Outlook Survey. All of the survey's broad indicators for current activity remained negative, although some rose from the extremely low levels they had reached during the past few months. Employment losses, however, were reported to be more substantial. Firms continued to report declines in input prices and prices for their own manufactured goods. Most of the survey's indicators of future activity improved, suggesting that the region's manufacturing executives expect declines to bottom out over the next six months.
Indicators Show Continued Declines
The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, remained negative, although it improved from a revised reading of –36.1 in December to –24.3 this month. The index has been negative for 13 of the past 14 months, corresponding to the current recession. A similar pattern of continued weakness was evident in most other broad indicators. The survey's new orders index remained very low, although it increased six points, to –22.3. Following an eight-year low reading in December, the survey's shipments index remained negative but improved 13 points. Indexes for unfilled orders and delivery times remained significantly negative this month and edged slightly lower, suggesting continued weakness. The current employment index fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping 10 points, to its lowest reading since the survey began in 1968. The percentage of firms reporting a decrease in employment (48 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting an increase (9 percent). The average workweek index remained very low and virtually unchanged at –30.3.
Posted: January 15, 2009 Thursday 10:01 AM