Research >> Economics

Beige Book: Economic Activity accelerated to a moderate pace


National economic activity accelerated to a moderate pace from late February to early April. Consumer spending strengthened. Reports on tourism were more upbeat, bolstered by a pickup in demand for leisure activities and travel which contacts attributed to spring break, an easing of pandemic-related restrictions, increased vaccinations, and recent stimulus payments among other factors. Auto sales grew, even as new-vehicle inventories remained constrained by microchip shortages. The picture in nonfinancial services generally improved, partly supported by strengthening demand for transportation, professional and business, and leisure and hospitality services. Despite widespread supply chain disruptions, manufacturing activity expanded further with half the Districts citing robust growth. Bankers in most reporting Districts saw modest to moderate increases in overall loan volumes. Sustained high demand and tight supply of single-family homes further pushed up prices, and builders noted ongoing production challenges, including rising costs. Reports on commercial real estate and construction varied, with activity in the hotel, office, and retail segments generally remaining weak. Agricultural conditions were mostly stable over the reporting period. Activity in the energy sector was mixed; coal production fell, while oil and gas drilling was flat to up. Outlooks were more optimistic than in the previous report, boosted in part by an acceleration in COVID-19 vaccinations.

Employment and Wages
Employment growth picked up over the reporting period, with most Districts noting modest to moderate increases in headcounts. The pace of job growth varied by industry but was generally strongest in manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality. Hiring remained a widespread challenge, particularly for low-wage or hourly workers, restraining job growth in some cases. Commercial and delivery drivers were specifically cited as in short supply, as were specialty and skilled tradespeople. Some firms noted absenteeism due to COVID-19 was down. Employment expectations were generally bullish. Wage growth accelerated slightly overall, with more significant wage pressures in industries like manufacturing and construction where finding and retaining workers was particularly difficult. Some contacts mentioned raising starting pay and offering signing bonuses to attract and retain employees.

Prices
Prices accelerated slightly since the last report, with many Districts reporting moderate price increases and some saying prices rose more robustly. Input costs rose across the board, but especially in the manufacturing, construction, retail, and transportation sectors—specifically, metals, lumber, food, and fuel prices. Cost increases were partly attributed to ongoing supply chain disruptions, temporarily exacerbated in some cases by winter weather events. There were widespread reports of increased selling prices also, but typically not on pace with rising costs. Contacts generally expect continued price increases in the near term.

Highlights by Federal Reserve District

Boston
Economic activity in the First District expanded at a modest to moderate pace in late February and March. Tourism seemed poised for a summer rebound. Two firms enacted large layoffs, but otherwise headcounts were stable or up. The outlook was mostly optimistic, but several contacts expressed growing concerns about inflation.

New York
The regional economy grew at a strong pace for the first time during the pandemic, with growth broad-based across industries. Hiring picked up and wages continued to grow moderately. Consumer spending and tourism picked up noticeably. Input price pressures have intensified, and more businesses are raising their selling prices.

Philadelphia
Business activity picked up to a moderate pace of growth during the current Beige Book period. However, severe myriad supply constraints continued to hamper potential growth from demand described as "on fire," and activity remained below levels attained prior to the pandemic. Employment ticked up modestly, as wage growth and prices continued at modest and moderate paces, respectively.

Cleveland
The District's expansion accelerated with a new round of government stimulus and more widely available vaccines. There were even signs of improvement in the hard-hit accommodation and food services sector. Supply chain disruptions spread, however, limiting growth and putting upward pressure on input costs. Looking forward, firms expect the economy to grow robustly in 2021 as supply chain constraints ease later in the year.

Richmond
The regional economy grew moderately in recent weeks. Production increased strongly and importing picked up, leading to high volumes for ports and trucking companies. Consumer spending also picked up. Both manufacturers and retailers faced delays and shortages of raw materials and finished goods. Employment increased and firms looked to fill open positions. On balance, prices rose moderately.

Atlanta
Economic activity expanded at a modest pace. Labor market conditions improved. Some nonlabor costs continued to rise. Retail sales increased. Hospitality and tourism activity strengthened. Residential real estate activity remained strong and home prices rose. Commercial real estate conditions were mixed. Manufacturing activity improved. Banking conditions were stable.

Chicago
Economic activity increased moderately. Employment, consumer spending, business spending and manufacturing production increased moderately, while construction and real estate was flat. Wages and prices rose modestly. Financial conditions were little changed. Prospects for agriculture income in 2021 improved.

St. Louis
Reports from contacts indicate that economic conditions have been moderately improved since our previous report. Many contacts cited faster-than-expected pace of vaccinations for stronger-than-expected activity and an improving outlook.

Minneapolis
The District economy grew moderately, with signs of acceleration. Job openings and employment rose, but unemployed workers faced obstacles in job searches. Construction showed renewed signs of growth, manufacturing continued to increase, and higher commodity prices benefited farmers. Despite improved oil prices, drilling remained subdued. Minority-owned firms reported more financial instability than firms overall.

Kansas City
Economic activity expanded moderately in March, and contacts were optimistic about growth in the coming months. Consumer spending rose moderately as retail, restaurant, auto, and tourism sales increased. Activity also expanded moderately in the manufacturing, professional and high-tech services, wholesale trade, transportation, residential real estate, and energy sectors.

Dallas
The District economy accelerated and was boosted by strong growth in manufacturing, retail, and nonfinancial services. Activity in the housing market remained robust, and energy activity rose further. Supply chain disruptions led to marked increases in goods prices. Outlooks were more positive and less uncertain than in the previous reporting period.

San Francisco
Economic activity in the District expanded at a moderate pace as labor markets conditions improved. Wages and inflation picked up. Retail sales growth accelerated, while activity in the services sector rose slightly. Conditions in the manufacturing sectors strengthened modestly. Residential construction continued to be strong. Lending activity grew further but loan refinancing tapered somewhat.




Posted: April 14, 2021 Wednesday 02:00 PM




Tags - Research
ADP EMPLOYMENT
BEIGE BOOK
BUSINESS BAROMETER
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
CASE-SHILLER
CEO CONFIDENCE
CHALLENGER LAYOFFS
CHICAGO FED MIDWEST MFG
CHICAGO FED NATL ACTIVITY
CHICAGO PMI
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
CONSUMER CREDIT
CPI
CURRENT ACCOUNT
DURABLE GOODS
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS INDEX
EXISTING HOME SALES
FACTORY ORDERS
FOMC STMT
FOMC
GDP
HELP WANTED HWOL
HOUSING STARTS
ICSC CHAIN STORE
IMPORT PRICE INDEX
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
ISM MFG
ISM NON-MFG
JOB OPENINGS
JOBLESS CLAIMS
KANSAS CITY FED MFG
LEADING INDEX
MASS LAYOFFS
MICH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
MORTGAGE APPS
NAHB INDEX
NAPM-NY
NBER
NEW HOME SALES
NEW YORK FED MFG
NFIB OPTIMISM INDEX
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
PAYCHEX-IHS SMALL JOBS
PENDING HOME SALES
PERSONAL INCOME
PHILA FED FORECASTERS
PHILA FED MFG
PHILA FED NON-MFG
PPI
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
REAL HOURLY EARNINGS
RETAIL SALES
RICHMOND FED MFG
TEXAS FED MFG
TREASURY INTL CAPITAL
WHOLESALE INVENTORIES
Archives
Apr 2024
Mar 2024
Feb 2024
Jan 2024
Dec 2023
Nov 2023
Oct 2023
Sep 2023
Aug 2023
Jul 2023
Jun 2023
May 2023
Apr 2023
Mar 2023
Feb 2023
Jan 2023
Dec 2022
Nov 2022
Oct 2022
Sep 2022
Aug 2022
Jul 2022
Jun 2022
May 2022
Apr 2022
Mar 2022
Feb 2022
Jan 2022
Dec 2021
Nov 2021
Oct 2021
Sep 2021
Aug 2021
Jul 2021
Jun 2021
May 2021
Apr 2021
Mar 2021
Feb 2021
Jan 2021
Dec 2020
Nov 2020
Oct 2020
Sep 2020
Aug 2020
Jul 2020
Jun 2020
May 2020
Apr 2020
Mar 2020
Feb 2020
Jan 2020
Dec 2019
Nov 2019
Oct 2019
Sep 2019
Aug 2019
Jul 2019
Jun 2019
May 2019
Apr 2019
Mar 2019
Feb 2019
Jan 2019
Dec 2018
Nov 2018
Oct 2018
Sep 2018
Aug 2018
Jul 2018
Jun 2018
May 2018
Apr 2018
Mar 2018
Feb 2018
Jan 2018
Dec 2017
Nov 2017
Oct 2017
Sep 2017
Aug 2017
Jul 2017
Jun 2017
May 2017
Apr 2017
Mar 2017
Feb 2017
Jan 2017
Dec 2016
Nov 2016
Oct 2016
Sep 2016
Aug 2016
Jul 2016
Jun 2016
May 2016
Apr 2016
Mar 2016
Feb 2016
Jan 2016
Dec 2015
Nov 2015
Oct 2015
Sep 2015
Aug 2015
Jul 2015
Jun 2015
May 2015
Apr 2015
Mar 2015
Feb 2015
Jan 2015
Dec 2014
Nov 2014
Oct 2014
Sep 2014
Aug 2014
Jul 2014
Jun 2014
May 2014
Apr 2014
Mar 2014
Feb 2014
Jan 2014
Dec 2013
Nov 2013
Oct 2013
Sep 2013
Aug 2013
Jul 2013
Jun 2013
May 2013
Apr 2013
Mar 2013
Feb 2013
Jan 2013
Dec 2012
Nov 2012
Oct 2012
Sep 2012
Aug 2012
Jul 2012
Jun 2012
May 2012
Apr 2012
Mar 2012
Feb 2012
Jan 2012
Dec 2011
Nov 2011
Oct 2011
Sep 2011
Aug 2011
Jul 2011
Jun 2011
May 2011
Apr 2011
Mar 2011
Feb 2011
Jan 2011
Dec 2010
Nov 2010
Oct 2010
Sep 2010
Aug 2010
Jul 2010
Jun 2010
May 2010
Apr 2010
Mar 2010
Feb 2010
Jan 2010
Dec 2009
Nov 2009
Oct 2009
Sep 2009
Aug 2009
Jul 2009
Jun 2009
May 2009
Apr 2009
Mar 2009
Feb 2009
Jan 2009
Dec 2008
Nov 2008
Oct 2008
Sep 2008
Aug 2008






National Association for Business Economics
NABE

Founded in 1920, the National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works.

CFA Institute

Quick Links
Barron's Online
Bloomberg
CNBC
CNBC TV Live
CNet Investor
Financial Times (UK)
Forbes
Kudlow Podcast
MSNBC TV Live
NBC News
NY Times
The Economist
TheStreet.com
Wall St Journal
Dismal Scientist
Dr. Ed Yardeni
FRED Graph
Lawrence Kudlow
GDPNow
NABE
ABC News
CNNfn
Institutional Investor
MarketWatch
Cash Prices - WSJ.com
Dollar Index
Dr. Jeremy Siegel
Market Map
NY RBOB Gas
PriceStats
Rig Count
Shadow Fed - SOMC
The Billion Prices Project
BankStocks.com
Dow Jones Indices
Morningstar
SP Indices
Mt Washington Observatory
Weather.com
Yahoo!!