Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer decreased 0.3%
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For the week ending August 13, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was down -0.3 percent after flat readings for two consecutive weeks. Households in twelve states could take advantage of the 2011 sales tax holiday during the week ending August 13, 2011, yet inflation-adjusted chain store sales decreased by -1.5 percent. A nosedive in stock prices along with greater uncertainty in the economic outlook may be weighing on household spending. Mortgage activities dropped sharply as well in the latest week. On the production side, seasonally-adjusted truck production came back strongly after decreasing in the prior week, but its gain was partially offset by a decline in lumber production in the Western forests region.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer slowed to +1.4 percent in the week ending August 13, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was down -0.1 percent in the latest week ending August 13th, extending its decline for four consecutive weeks, while its year-over-year growth rate slightly decelerated to +1.6 percent.
Posted: August 25, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM