Research >> Economics
BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.4%
For the week ending December 19 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.4 percent to 98.4. This week’s drop was driven by production indexes. Lumber and coal production, for instance, fell by 2.7 and 4.9 percent, respectively, after reporting solid gains in the previous week. Likewise, truck production dipped by 5.8 percent following a gain of 8.6 percent a week earlier. As to the consumption side, chain store sales and MBA’s purchase index showed gains, although they were somewhat offset by losses in railroad freight car loadings.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed a loss of -1.8 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, increased by 0.1 percent to 98.3. Its year-over-year growth rate was -1.4 percent.
Posted: December 31, 2015 Thursday 10:00 AM