Research >> Economics
Chicago Fed National Activity below average in September
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The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.09 in September from +0.01 in August. September’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.17 in September from –0.04 in August. Twenty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 59 made negative contributions. Forty-two indicators improved from August to September, while 42 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 25 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI ticked up to –0.18 in September from –0.21 in August. Manufacturing production moved down 0.1 percent in September, following a decline of 0.4 percent in August. Similarly, the sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in September, up slightly from –0.03 in August.
Employment-related indicators contributed –0.11 to the CFNAI in September, down slightly from –0.08 in August. Civilian employment declined by 0.2 percent in September, following an increase of 0.1 percent in August; however, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1 percent in September.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to –0.08 in September from –0.06 in August. Housing permits declined to 1,103,000 annualized units in September from 1,161,000 in the previous month. However, housing starts moved up to 1,206,000 annualized units in September from 1,132,000 in August.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of October 20, 2015. At that time, September data for 49 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The August monthly index was revised to –0.39 from an initial estimate of –0.41. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the August monthly index was due primarily to the former.
Posted: October 22, 2015 Thursday 08:30 AM