Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer Increased 0.1%
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For the week ending August 27, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was up slightly by +0.1 percent after falling for two consecutive weeks. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales and MBA’s purchase index both showed a modest improvement from the low level of the prior week. On the production side, a gain in electric output was largely offset by the decline in steel production in the latest week ending August 27th. Overall, economic activities based on the business barometer slowed in August amid a greater uncertainty over the economic outlook, volatile stock prices and a stagnant labor market.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer was up +1.3 percent in the week ending August 27, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was down -0.1 percent in the latest week ending August 27th, extending its decline for six consecutive weeks, while its year-over-year growth rate further slowed to +1.2 percent.
Posted: September 8, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM