Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer Decreased 1.2%
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For the week ending January 7, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined sharply by -1.2 percent on top of a drop by -0.5 percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales plunged by -5.5 percent to the lowest level since the week ending October 22, 2011, and pushed the barometer index down by -0.9 percentage points. Production sector continued to reflect the distortion related to auto factory shutdowns surrounding the New Year’s floating holiday. Auto production decreased by a hefty -22.2 percent, and truck production dropped for two weeks in a row, dragging the barometer index down by -0.5 percentage points combined. Gains in electric output and MBA’s mortgage applications partially offset the overall decline.
On a year-over-year basis, the growth of the barometer slowed to +0.7 percent for two weeks in a row, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, dropped by -0.2 percent in the week ending January 7th, while its year-over-year growth rate grew by +1.0 percent.
Posted: January 19, 2012 Thursday 10:00 AM