Research >> Economics
Forecasters Outlook for Growth Holds Steady
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The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy is little changed from that of three months ago, according to 39 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.4 percent this quarter, up slightly from the previous estimate of 2.3 percent. Over the next three quarters, they expect GDP growth to average 2.6 percent, down from the previous average of 2.8 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters see real GDP growth for 2012 and 2013, at 2.3 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. These estimates are the same as those in the previous survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 3.1 percent in 2014 and 3.4 percent in 2015.
Projections for stronger conditions in the labor market accompany the outlook for real output. Unemployment is projected to be an annual average of 8.1 percent in 2012, before falling to 7.7 percent in 2013, 7.2 percent in 2014, and 6.6 percent in 2015. The estimates for 2012, 2013, and 2014 are 0.2 percentage point lower than the projections in the last survey.
On the employment front, the forecasters have revised upward their estimates of the growth in jobs in the next four quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 164,900 jobs per month this quarter and 170,000 jobs per month next quarter. The forecasters' projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 171,900 in 2012 and 175,700 in 2013.
Posted: May 11, 2012 Friday 10:00 AM