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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Slower, but Still Slightly Above-Average Growth in November
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Led by slower growth in employment- and production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.27 in November from +1.01 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in November, but all four categories decreased from October. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.56 in November from +0.85 in October.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to +0.53 in November from +0.62 in October. Forty-nine of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 36 made negative contributions. Twenty indicators improved from October to November, 64 indicators deteriorated, and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, five made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.14 to the CFNAI in November, down from +0.36 in October. Manufacturing industrial production increased 0.8 percent in November after rising 1.1 percent in October. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI decreased to +0.07 in November from +0.17 in October.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.15 to the CFNAI in November, down from +0.45 in October. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 245,000 in November after rising by 610,000 in October. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved down to –0.09 in November from +0.02
in October.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of December 18, 2020. At that time, November data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The October monthly index value was revised to +1.01 from an initial estimate of +0.83, and the September monthly index value was revised to +0.40 from last month’s estimate of +0.32. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the October monthly index value was primarily due to the latter, while the revision to the September monthly index value was primarily due to the former.
Posted: December 21, 2020 Monday 08:30 AM